A Dynasty Renewed or Anew?

Looking ahead and previewing this exciting 2022 Finals matchup

May 21st, 2021. The Warriors just lost to Ja Morant and a young Memphis Grizzlies squad in a thrilling overtime play-in game to determine that season's final playoff spot. What was an unstoppable juggernaut in Golden State, making the Finals for five straight seasons, had now failed to even reach the playoffs in the two years since Kevin Durant had departed the Bay Area. With the dynasty status of the team in jeopardy, they went into the offseason with questions lingering around the team asking if they would contend for another Finals anytime soon. One year later, and those questions have been answered with an emphatic yes. From a team that had Kelly Oubre Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, Kent Bazemore and a (when healthy) struggling rookie James Wiseman playing significant roles has turned into a much improved Jordan Poole, Otto Porter Jr., and still threatening Klay Thompson, all who are better players and fits for the Warrior's style of play. Now, they look to continue the recent history of Warrior's greatness and grab the team's 4th championship in twice as many years.

January 6th, 2022, and R.J. Barrett has just hit a buzzer beating three to erase a 25 point Celtic's lead to give the struggling New York Knicks a win over a similarly struggling Boston Celtics. Many Knicks fans at this time were hoping that this would help turn their season around and help the team return to their previous season form. Unfortunately for them, it was the spark that the losing team needed to change everything. Sitting at 11th in the conference at 18-21 after the demoralizing loss, the Celtics transformed into a completely different monster, going 33-10 since that January loss and posting an unheard of net rating of +13.5, almost doubling the next highest at +7.3. They carried this momentum into the playoffs, shutting down Kevin Durant and the Nets, coming from behind and beating the defending champion Bucks, and holding off a pesky Heat team to earn their first Finals berth after appearing in the Conference Finals for the fourth time since 2017. Now this young squad, surely not satisfied, will try to earn their 18th championship in their franchise's long history.

On June 2nd, these two teams, both who have made drastic turnarounds, 2700 miles apart, will begin a battle to write their names in the history books.

The teams themselves are a very interesting matchup. The Warriors are known to employ their offense focused on ball and player movement, while the Celtics have had 106.4 defensive rating since January 7th, the best in the league since that time. The Warriors finished the regular season with an offensive rating of 112.5, ranked 17th, which at first seems concerning before remembering their important players missed significant time this season, all at different times. Draymond Green only played in 46 games, Steph Curry played in 64, and Klay Thompson didn't play a single game until January 27th. With that said, the Warriors will still have an uphill climb trying to score on a suffocating Celtics defense. The Celtics matchup well across the board with the Warriors, with the defensive player of the year Marcus Smart likely to guard Steph Curry for the majority of minutes they're on the floor together. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can guard Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, with Horford on Looney, Green, or Porter Jr. depending on who is on the floor at certain points. When Robert Williams is available to play, I see the Celtics putting him on Green when both are in the game so Williams can do what he does best and make plays defensively by helping off of Green. The Celtics are also well equipped to combat the Warriors smallball lineup, as they can throw Derrick White, Smart, Tatum, Brown, and Grant Williams out there if they need too.

Everyone knows that the Warriors are constantly looking for threes, taking 45% of their shots from that range, but the Celtics just happen to be the league leader in opponent three point percentage at just 33.5%. The Warriors, consistent with how they played when they went to five straight Finals, were second to last in turnovers per game to only the abysmal Houston Rockets. While this was never an issue before when they were winning, it's still something to watch out for. Look for the Celtics to push in transition off of turnovers, as they proved in the Heat series they're smart enough to know that they should push in transition rather than face elite half-court defense like the Warriors have.

On the other side, the Celtics will be hard-pressed to get good looks themselves. The Warriors for the whole regular season, finished tied for first with - you guessed it - the Boston Celtics, with a defensive rating at 106.9. That was with Draymond Green missing 36 games. The difference in the two defenses, though, is that the Celtics have players that the Celtics can try to attack. Curry and Poole aren't big or strong enough to guard Tatum or Brown one on one if they get switched on, and Klay Thompson is certainly not as quick as he was coming off of two major injuries. Still, the Warriors have an overall good team defense, and the Celtics are prone to have stretches where they struggle to score, especially if Tatum and Brown are cold. The consistency of the two Celtic stars should be mentioned too, as both are known to have stretches where they don't seem miss, but then have stretches where they can't buy baskets. That lack of consistency, paired with the Warrior's elite team defense, means that there will be periods where the Celtics struggle to score.

The x-factor on the Warriors side come down to how well Andrew Wiggins plays and the availability of Gary Payton II. With Wiggins, we should see him guarding either Tatum of Brown whenever he's in the game. With how many minutes he's going to play, it's going to be important for him to play well on offense as well to help supplement Curry, Thompson, and Poole. For Gary Payton, the most recent news says he is on track to play in game 1. Even if he is available, it remains to be seen how much he actually plays and how effective he will be. The minutes he plays will be crucial, letting Wiggins and Green get a rest from guarding the two best Celtics.

On the Celtics side, it will be interesting to see how well Al Horford is able to hold up. With him turning thirty-six one day after the beginning of the series, the Celtics need him to keep up an acceptable level of play, both to stretch the floor and for his defensive versatility. Horford definitely seemed to trail off as the Heat series went on, and to keep up with this Warriors team that has a lot of firepower, the Celtics need him to stay consistent all series. Derrick White is another player to really keep an eye out for, as his bench minutes are really key for the Celtics. If Derrick White stays aggressive on offense and keeps up his solid defense, it would really help the Celtics whose depth has continued to be a question all season, especially with the availability and performances of Robert Williams being so up and down.

There will be Warriors wins in this series that just happen because their main players get hot and refuse to miss. There will also be Celtics wins that happen simply because Tatum and Brown have monster games. The series will come down to which team is able to really lock in defensively, and force more turnovers to try and take advantage of transition opportunities. With the way that the Celtics have defended for the last half of the season, I think they can eventually pull out a tough, gritty series, but it certainly will not be easy for them.

Prediction: Celtics in 7